Sports

On Thursday it arrived, as straight and sure as a Rick Ankiel pitch to the backstop: City Comptroller Alan Hevesi's yearly predictions of the economic benefits of a New York World Series—and this year, of a possible Subway Series. In Hevesi's estimate, a best-case scenario—two full-length league-championship series followed by a seven-game World Series between the Bombers and Amazins—would result in about $15 million in city tax revenues on a whopping $246 million in new spending.

But there's ample reason to suspect that Hevesi's windfall may be illusory—or worse, mask a net drain on city coffers. To arrive at the $246 million figure, for example, Hevesi's study merely tallied up playoff ticket sales, TV revenues, concessions, and advertising sales. But while these all qualify as "economic activity" (i.e., the sum total of dollars exchanged within city limits), it's dubious as to how much they're worth to city residents: Aside from a few hundred beer vendors and ticket takers, the bulk of this money goes straight into the pockets of the owners and players—and so is more likely to spur Lexus sales in Tampa and North Jersey than boost receipts at the local bodega.

This "leakage," as economists term it, is only worsened by the fact that much of the ticket buying and beer guzzling likely comes at the expense of other, more locally beneficial entertainment options. While the comptroller excluded spending at local restaurants and souvenir stands—noting correctly that such spending is offset by drop-offs in such sectors as "movie-going and eating at restaurants that don't have large-screen televisions"—he somehow overlooked the fact that city residents who've just plunked down $500 plus TicketMaster charges for a pair of World Series ducats likewise might have to curtail moviegoing and dining out until their bank balances recover.

The only spending not subject to this diversion effect, in fact, is from out-of-towners who wouldn't otherwise have set foot in the city—a demographic likely to be in short supply during a series featuring two New York teams. All of which is to say: Calista Flockhart, you better eat a lot of hot dogs. Alan Hevesi is counting on you.

Contributors: Neil Demause, Blake Zeff, Billy Altman, Paul Lukas, Howard Z. Unger, Brian Parks
Sports Editor: Miles D. Seligman