By Albert Samaha
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If Al Qaeda is serious about recent threats to strike at U.S. Economic interests, we could end up waging war on twoor even threefronts, from the Middle East and Asia all the way to Latin America. That's because, in our government's view, U.S. interests start and end with oil.
Already, we have spent billions upon billions of dollars, and sacrificed no small number of lives, protecting supplies of crude in remote corners of the world. Though we lean heavily on stable sources like Canada, our biggest supplier, we're also dependent on several volatile nations. Saudi Arabia tops that list, followed by Venezuela and Mexico. West Africa is a growing exporter, with Nigeria now our No. 5 provider. Despite continued sanctions, Iraq remains our sixth-biggest supplier.
Strong environmental opposition has made searching for supplemental barrels at home more difficult. And with no real national commitment to improving efficiency or developing renewable fuels, we have to look abroad. That means break out the guns and start writing checksbig, big checks.
When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and threatened our flow of petroleum, we launched Desert Storm. Not counting the aftermath of personnel sickened by uranium-tipped missiles or the continued flyovers and bombing, that campaign cost $61.1 billion, of which U.S. taxpayers paid $23 billion.
With the war in Afghanistana nation key to the dream of Central Asian pipelineswinding down, U.S. troops are now stationed in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Georgia, at a price of something like $80,000 per soldier, per year. That expense comes on top of the $12.6 billion we spent getting rid of the Taliban and opening the way for oil to move through.
One figure, from the Sydney Morning Herald, tallies U.S. expenditures on troops and advisers in Central Asia at $200 billion. The real aim is to secure the region for more pipelines. American companies are involved in an enormous venture with the Chinese to build a pipeline more than 3000 miles long, stretching from the Caspian Sea to Shanghai; a second consortium would open a pipe from the Caspian to a Turkish port. The U.S. also has an interest in Russian oil rigs and pipelines. The war in Chechnya has left the Russians facing a constant specter of terrorists blowing up any network. Thus U.S. Special Forces stand by protectively in the former Soviet republics, while the meter runs.
When we're not keeping rebels at bay, we're making sticky deals with monarchs. The Saudis, for instance, use some of the wealth they gain from selling oil to us to buy American arms. Between 1998 and 2001, the U.S. transferred arms to the Saudis worth $12.8 billion.
Estimates are that the next Iraq war will cost between $20 billion and $30 billion. The U.S. will pay more, because Gulf allies like Saudis won't be picking up the tab. The U.S. hopes to recoup this expense through the sale of Iraqi oil, currently worth $17 billion annually.
Here's a look at the lengths our government and its shadow enforcers will go to in order to protect your local pump.
WEST AFRICA Anxious to diversify away from the Middle East, the U.S. has begun looking to oil from Gulf of Guinea nations like Nigeria, Angola, Gabon, and São Tomé. All of these countries are almost totally dependent on the export of oil to obtain stable foreign currencies.
The desperation on both sides has led to neo-colonial ugliness, with Shell Oil in particular facing unending local fury. Shell encouraged the Nigerian government to put a stop to the activist Ken Saro-Wiwa, who during the late 1990s organized protests against the company's operations on Ogoni tribal lands. Nigerian officials arrested Saro-Wiwa, and eventually hanged him.
Painted as an international pariah, the company was forced to admit it had armed Nigeria's ruthless mobile policenicknamed the Kill and Go Mobwhose members killed 80 people in one village where Shell installations were being attacked.
Other costs are less clear. Through the CIA, the U.S. was quietly engaged for many years in the inconclusive civil war in Angola, and the hungry government of São Tomé looks forward to an American military base. São Tomé might take a lesson from what happened in Angola, our eighth-largest oil supplier. A settlement, signed on April 4, supposedly ended the 26-year conflict, but not before the country was left economically devastated and mourning the million people killed in fighting.
INDONESIAAlready antsy oil and gas companies in Indonesia grew nervous after last week's terrorist attacks. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, with big customers in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. The economies of all three nations rely entirely on imported energy. Any cut in the supply lines could quickly turn catastrophic, with effects on the manufacture of goods sold to U.S. consumers.
ConocoPhillips, BP, Unocal, and ExxonMobil all have Indonesian interests. One export terminal was shut for five months last year following a separatist bombing that damaged the apparatus and caused ExxonMobil to pull out its staff.
American troops have not participated in Indonesia since 1999 because of that country's human rights abuses in East Timor. But after 9-11, President Bush moved to increase military aid and relax restrictions on American military presence. A supplemental appropriations bill provided $16 million for the training of Indonesian police and $4 million for the military.