By Jena Ardell
By Jon Campbell
By Alan Scherstuhl
By Tessa Stuart
By Roy Edroso
By Jon Campbell
By Albert Samaha
By Zachary D. Roberts
With Wall Street straining for a toehold on stability and joblessness growing nationwide to about 6 percent, the most cynical among us might conclude that America's best bet for economic recovery lies in a war against Iraq. This would be a pump-priming Keynesian affair, a Republican gambit running directly counter to the right wing's beloved belief in privatizing and cutting the government, not to mention its passion for the free market.
What will the war cost? Almost every estimate allows room for doubling the minimum. The first bullet might as well be a blank check.
The initial military operation, says Congressman John Spratt of South Carolina, would run us $48 billion to $93 billion. The figures from Spratt, a top Democrat on the Budget and Armed Services committees, assume the war would last from 30 to 60 days, with an armed force of 125,000 to 250,000. But that would be just the beginning.
The Congressional Budget Office sets the expense of merely deploying the force at anywhere between $9 billion and $13 billion. The war itself would cost up to $9 billion a month. Returning U.S. forces to their home bases would run $5 billion to $7 billion. Occupation ranges from $1 billion to $4 billion, and that's per month.
The president's economic adviser, Lawrence Lindsey, told The Wall Street Journal recently that a war in Iraq could cost between $100 billion and $200 billion. The Pentagon puts the total cost at $50 billion.
Then there are the lasting human costs. War inevitably results in refugees, and while the government's Office of Refugee Resettlement is leery of setting any dollar figures on resettlement, it did point out that the price of a single plane ticket from the Middle East to the U.S. runs between $1300 and $1600 and that to provide, as the rules call for, cash assistance for eight months can run anywhere from $2800 to $8000 per refugee. No one knows how many displaced people to expect.
The Next White House Wish List
With the midterm elections over, President Bush can finally come off the campaign trail and do a little actual work.
Priority No. 1, says Patrick Basham of the libertarian Cato Institute, likely will be to seek congressional approval for the Homeland Security Agencya national, coordinated police system with the rudiments of a built-in snitch line. Mike Franc, point man for the conservative Heritage Foundation, predicts the Bush team will cast energy consumption as a primary security issue.
Other key components of the conservative program, according to Washington insiders:
Rewriting Social Security "to modernize it," says the American Enterprise Institute's John Fortier. That means creating personal investment accounts for individuals, pushing them to follow the suckers and lose their shirts in the market. It also means giving Wall Street a scarcely imaginable windfall in commissions, management, and sales fees.
Dumping Medicare in favor of a private, supposedly competitive health plan modeled after the one offered workers within the federal government.
Jump-starting the economy. "If the economy continues to teeter-totter, there's going to be a renewed effort on the tax issue. They will look to short-term ventures such as tax cuts," says Basham.
Extending faith-based governance. With the nation preoccupied by the war on terror, look for Bush to renew his attempts at turning social welfare over to the church. As in Dickensian times, the notion of civic responsibility has been transformed into a call for alms-giving to the poor.
In bits and pieces, a better picture of what happened on September 11 comes into focusno thanks to the federal government, which has stonewalled inquiries. A few months ago, I joined with Russ Kick (a Voice freelancer and the Web sleuth behind the archive TheMemoryhole.com), using the Freedom of Information Act to seek communications from the four doomed flights. In its response the Federal Aviation Administration at first stated, "The recordings of communications, transcripts, and any documents relating to your request are part of an ongoing, sensitive investigation." Access denied.
Further down, in the same letter, the FAA wrote, "There are no records or other correspondence relating to any signals, alarms, or any other form of nonverbal communications emanating from the four hijacked flights," adding, "There are no documents in written or recorded form having to do with communications from any of the four hijacked flights."
This is absurd, since as far back as last fall, ABC broadcast smidgens of the air traffic controller tape. And AirDisaster.com, a usually reliable and thoroughgoing site, has posted a sound file of air traffic control during the morning of September 11. It shows that Cleveland Air Traffic Control had two brief contacts with United Airlines Flight 93the "Let's Roll" flightbefore the crash.
As we already know from air traffic control tapes of American Flight 11, the FAA controllers became aware of that hijacking soon after the plane took off from Boston. Yet knowledge was no protection. The BBC recently aired an interview with the Northeast Defense Sector air commander saying there were only four armed fighters patrolling the Atlantic coast of the U.S. that day.