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Will NYC's College Building Boom Bubble Pop?

New York's universities have grand expansion plans, but could the economy--and online courses--doom them to failure before they've even begun?

Comparatively, the expansions planned by Columbia and NYU are audacious. Columbia is trying to expand by 17 acres in West Harlem, with much of that space going to medical and scientific research facilities. It plans to erect more than a dozen buildings between 125th and 134th streets and promises to create affordable housing as well as 6,000 permanent jobs. (Columbia officials wouldn’t estimate how many more students the new campus will accommodate.) NYU wants to grow by six million square feet by 2031, an increase of 40 percent over its current size. Half of NYU’s expansion would be in Greenwich Village—a plan that still requires rezoning and approval by the city’s landmarks commission and the City Council—while the other half would put new campuses in Brooklyn and on Governors Island. NYU expects the expansion will allow it to increase enrollment by 13 percent, to 46,500 students, over the next 21 years.

But will these schools really need all of this space once it comes online? Ten years from now, will we be downloading courses via Facebook apps onto iPads? Could all that classroom space end up being about as useful as the new home once planned for the New York Stock Exchange? In 2002, the Big Board walked away from a $1.1 billion deal with the city, realizing advances in technology meant it no longer needed a physical trading floor.

Enter the ‘Edupunks’
It’s easy to understand why New York’s universities are optimistic. Last year, NYU saw a record 38,000 applications for freshman admission, four times what it received 20 years ago. Nationwide, college enrollment is predicted to grow 13 percent by 2018, but the U.S. Department of Education cautions that its forecast doesn’t factor in such potentially disruptive forces as the rising cost of college, the changing economic value of a degree, and “the impact of distance learning due to technological changes.”

The troubled economy and changing technology have already fueled a do-it-yourself education reform movement dubbed “edupunk,” which envisions virtual campuses and lower-cost or even free instruction. The edupunks are picking up where traditional institutions left off. Since 2001, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has offered free online lecture notes, exams, and videos from classes. Today, its site gets 1.5 million visits a month, serving 900,000 unique users, and it’s part of a worldwide Open CourseWare Consortium of universities offering free courses online. Other schools, such as Yale and the University of California at Berkeley, are posting video lectures. You can’t get a degree from any of these efforts, but you can learn.

“Early on, there was a lot of concern,” recalls Steve Carson of MIT OpenCourseWare. “What would the students think? What would the parents think? After all, they’re paying lots and lots of money, and here we are giving away the same materials for free.

“But when you talk to students, you find the value of being on campus is access to the equipment, access to the professors, and the opportunity to study with other bright and motivated students,” Carson continues. “There’s a certification and assessment for the learning that takes place—it’s all presented on campus as a big package. MIT took one piece of that and put it up on the Internet, unbundled.”

During the dot-com boom, many universities expended a lot of resources exploring the use of the Internet, but the most prestigious of the lot found they couldn’t charge their customary top dollar for online offerings. Beginning in 2000, for example, Columbia spent $25 million on Fathom.com, which offers online courses taught not only by Columbia faculty but by instructors at such places as the University of Chicago and the American Film Institute. But after two years, and few students willing to pay for classes, Fathom converted into a free online archive of lectures and course materials. (Columbia does offer online courses as well as professional and graduate degrees in engineering and applied science.) NYU abandoned an initial online effort in 2003, though it now offers select graduate and undergraduate courses on the Web through its School of Continuing and Professional Studies, and online degrees in social sciences, human resources and management, and international business.

The early online efforts were meant to “level the playing field and drive down costs,” says Cathy Casserly of the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, but mostly they couldn’t replace face-to-face instruction. “I don’t think we’re there yet, because people are still experimenting with how the technology gets used.”

Still, edupunks remain hopeful about unbundling more elements of the campus experience. One site, the Peer 2 Peer University, provides an online community of study groups or book clubs where you can network with other students.

“I think you’ll start to see more of these pieces becoming unbundled,” says Carson, “and savvy students will have the opportunity to recombine them in strategic ways to get exactly what they need.”

Bricks, Not Clicks
Of the planned expansions in New York, NYU’s is particularly remarkable considering that 37 years ago, the school’s financial troubles forced the sale of its Bronx campus in University Heights. Today, university president John Sexton is aggressively pursuing expansions both here and abroad. He says the school’s Abu Dhabi campus—entirely bankrolled by the oil-rich emirate—may soon be joined by a third degree-granting campus in Shanghai. Apart from its new campus, Abu Dhabi has made an unrestricted gift of $50 million to NYU, and it’s reportedly helping to finance Sexton’s New York scheme (though the university would neither confirm nor deny that claim to the Voice).

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  • 08/02/2010 10:08:00 AM

    6% bond? Where?

  • Larry Kramer 07/31/2010 4:10:00 PM

    would that all these new university buildings weren't so UGLY.NYU is destroying the village, block by block, with their hideous dorms and other structures. you would think that with all the great architects in the world, in this city, university decision makers could be more aesthetically responsible!

  • Gary McAleer 07/30/2010 9:13:00 AM

    w/o love, nothing gets done.

  • Gary McAleer 07/30/2010 9:02:00 AM

    Glad to hear it! New York, NY deserves this upswing. We so need innovators to turn the tide of THE PATH TO our national destruction. Rise Up! Bros! w/o developing innovation in this country we'll never get out of this hole the supremacists have dug for us. Men like Brian Appel are the enemies of the politicians, great polluters, liars and thieves of Earth (including Obama): men who will destroy our planet's ecosystems simply for the "golden parachute." Their declaration to future generations who will reap the harm done by these imbeciles: "Hey, I'm not gonna be around!" Just look at the rates and diversity of disease passed down to our generation.--A near vertical line. It's time to pass the buck to those to whom it is due! As they say in the local bars: 'I love you man!'

  • Carolyn 07/30/2010 7:46:00 AM

    What I worry about is that the experience of living in community with other students and faculty will become the purview of only the wealthy as it was before WWII. Tuition costs keep soaring, and universities give scholarships to the poverty stricken but offer little help to the middle and working classes. This does not create the kind of atmosphere that generates sharing and enriches learning that will last after students leave campus. Nor does it teach students respect for much besides the power of the dollar. Cross pollination from other cultures and classes were the earmarks of American universities for years, but they no longer fit the mould.

  • John 07/30/2010 12:44:00 AM

    St. John's is New York City's hidden gem. If it were not located where it is in far-out Queens, it would be competing with Columbia.

  • John 07/28/2010 10:00:00 PM

    College is an overpriced, oversold waste of time and money perpetuated by the academia indistrial complex for their own financial gain. If you took what you spent for 4 years of college, say $200k, and dropped it into a 6% bond at 18 years old, you'd retire before you were 35.

  • 07/28/2010 9:28:00 PM

    We are putting up new buildings at CU/Boulder as well. Go figure. Hayek would say that colleges, as government agencies, don't have access to market data on whether expected student enrollments will meet capacity, and, even if college administrators had such data, they wouldn't use it.

 

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