Dr. Doom ("Nouriel Roubini"): 40 Percent Chance of "Renewed Recession" for American Economy
Nouriel Roubini -- who's basically living like a rap star after screaming about how utterly fucked the American economy was before it happened, watching it happen, and telling everyone how he told them so -- just made a headline tonight when he put the chances of a "renewed recession" for America at 40 percent, and U.S. economic growth below 1 percent in the third quarter of 2010. There's a reason they call him Dr. Doom.
"All the growth tailwinds of the first half of the year become headwinds in the second half," he said in an e-mail message, including the government's $814-billion stimulus plan, hiring for the census, and incentives such the cash-for-clunkers program and tax credits for first-time home buyers.
In the best scenario, he said he expects an "anemic, sub-par, below-trend U for many years given the need and process of deleveraging" by households, governments and the financial system.
Okay, 40 percent. 40 percent is a terrible number! 40 percent is "not necessarily not likely, but almost could go either way!" Question, though: What's Roubini gonna do when things actually go well for once? Maybe he can be the Nate Silver of Shit About To Go Wrong. Where was Nouriel Roubini before the egg recall, huh? Better yet, where was Nouriel Roubini before that Asian kid snapped his ankle on So You Think You Can Dance? Next time, he can stand around going, NO! NO! DO NOT DANCE TO THAT LUDACRIS SONG! THERE'S A 77 PERCENT CHANCE YOU'LL GET HURT! He may be correct in this instance, but the man needs to "scale" his act, is all.
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