The Hayseed vs. Hillary
Never mind the new Stop Her Now movement, here's the plain truth about mounting a challenge against Hillary Clinton: Even the most seasoned politician would face a hell of a time unseating New York's junior senator in 2006.
So what does that mean for the first person willingfoolhardy?enough to say he'll take her on, a self-styled Republican everyman named William Brenner?
Last month, the Sullivan County attorney announced he was up for the task. Brennermost folks call him Billis a virtual unknown outside the hinterlands of Grahamsville, his adopted hometown. Clinton, on the contrary, is a leading and world-famous Democrat. Brenner's political pedigree consists of three failed runs, twice for State Assembly, once for U.S. Congress. Clinton is an experienced hand who managed to delight leery New Yorkers on the 2000 campaign trailand keeps doing it today. To wit: the 51 percent of residents who told pollsters last week she's already got their vote.
And then there's the cash factor. In 2004, when Brenner took on U.S. Congressman Maurice Hinchey, he had a war chest of $6,500, most of it from his personal bank account. For her 2000 bid, Clinton collected $42 million. These days, she's in a fundraising league all her ownshe brought in $10 million last year, $3.9 million in the first three months of 2005. Last weekend, she held a $1,000-a-head party in Wayzata, Minnesota.
In other words, Brenner versus Clinton seems a lot like David versus Goliath. Or, in the words of Martin Donnelly, of the Delaware County Republican Committee, "It's kind of like Don Quixote with the windmill."
None of this stopped Brenner from joining the embryonic Senate contest. On March 23, he penned a letter to 62 Republican county chairmen announcing his desire to take on Clinton. On March 29, he went public with his candidacy, making news from Brockton, Massachusetts, to Washington, D.C. Last week, he began trolling for support among GOP activists, visiting county committees, attending political dinners.
He even scored face time with the state Republican Party president Stephen Minarik, one of the authors of the New York-level Stop Hillary Now drive. The hope, however vain, is to knock her out in '06 so she can't be a favorite in the presidential race two years later. Minarik is joined by Arthur Finkelstein, the adviser behind the careers of the likes of George Pataki and Jesse Helms, who's planning the Stop Her Now campaignwhich, with its Swift Boat-style charges, could get ugly.
Meanwhile, the anxious party base is speculating over who could possibly have the right big-name-big-money mix to wage a valiant fight (see sidebar).
Brenner believes he's the one. "I know I'm not the favorite," he cedes. At least one county chairman has already tried to dissuade him. "He said, 'You're crazy going up against Hillary Clinton's machineshe'll chew you up and spit you out.' "
That Brenner, 64, a small-town guy, has set his sights on Clinton's Senate seatand thus on the 24-7 bustle of Capitol Hillseems completely out of character with his everyday life. Grahamsville, part of the Town of Neversink, is the kind of place where birds drown out cars, hay bales get sold roadside, and cell phone service disappears.
Around here, he's something of a big cheese. He oversees the 18 Brenner Income Tax Centers throughout Sullivan, Ulster, and Orange counties, and maintains a "country law" practice assisting folks with everything from speeding tickets to divorce and foreclosures. His company, based in an old farmhouse, dominates the heart of Grahamsville, a one-light intersection with a smattering of uninspired storefronts.
Sitting in a wood-paneled office filled with law books and amateur art, Brenner looks right at home. Bespectacled and broad, he exudes an affable, homey demeanor. He hardly notices when his employees walk through his office to get to the bathroom, or when his assistant's toddler son wakes from a nap crying. "It's a country office," he says with a shrug. "I like the life."
So why leave it behind to battle Clinton?
"The economy," he responds, meaning the one in New York, the one upstate in particular. That's why he went from community leaderhe's a 25-year volunteer firefighterto political hopeful.
"We're in a pitched battle to save jobs and industries," he says, reading from notes scribbled on yellow legal paper. As Brenner gives his spiel, his face becomes flushed, his voice animated. His passion takes over, and he lets go of the notes.
He has heard working people's frustrations. "They tell me, 'I want to work. I need to work.' But their jobs are being outsourced."
This sad economic situation has only continued since Clinton assumed office, he says. If he were elected, he'd work more closely with corporate leaders, employee unions, and state officials to make New York business friendly.
Brenner has refrained from slinging mud so farindeed, he sent Clinton a letter this month saying he'll run "an honest, worthy, and issues-based campaign." But he has a hard time hiding his dislike for the woman he calls "an opportunistic carpetbagger." And now that she's all but announced a White House run in 2008, he asks, how can anyone think she'll represent the best interests of New Yorkers?
"If Clinton is re-elected, we'll never see her," he says. "She won't be putting the New York economy first."
Any Other Volunteers?
Ask GOPers who'd make the '06 Senate race competitive for the party and, invariably, one name surfaces: Rudy Giuliani. But alas, Giuliani's top political aide said this month the former New York mayor is too busy to run. So aside from Bill Brenner, that leaves a short list of potential contenders:
Edward Cox, a Manhattan attorney, and the late President Richard Nixon's son-in-law. Part of his appeal stems from his connections to old-school Republicans waxing nostalgic. Cox is said to have the blessing of Governor George Pataki, making him the early favorite among GOP leaders.
Jeanine Pirro, the Westchester County district attorney. Pirro has the tough-on-crime thing nailed down, of course, as well as proven electability. The fact that she's a woman, as opposed to another white guy, doesn't hurt either.
Adam Brecht, a Manhattan public relations guru and former aide to Senator Alfonse D'Amato. Since last fall, Brecht has been quietly issuing press releases on everything from hedge funds to the pope's death. He has yet to make his candidacy official, saying that he's "exploring" an '06 bid. He lacks real name recognition, but gets props for his spiffy website, complete with an applause soundtrack and a candidate's blog. K.L.
The economy seems the perfect rallying cry for any Republican challenger, especially in upstate communities caught for decades in a downward spiral. In 2000, Clinton held her own among these voters because she talked about the area's economic woes. But she also made promises on which she has yet to deliverbringing 200,000 new jobs to depressed regions, for instance.
"We're still waiting for those jobs," notes Anthony Capozzi of Binghamton, who heads the Broome County Republican Committee.
Still, one reason Clinton is so formidable is that she has tried to solve economic problems. Says one upstate GOPer, "I dramatically disagree with her on issues, but she's an effective politician."
Last week, she and fellow New York senator Chuck Schumer fended off a challenge to a contract for the new fleet of presidential helicopters to be built at Lockheed Martin in the Binghamton areaa project worth some 750 engineering jobs.
Anyone who goes up against Clinton is likely to garner at least 30 percent of the vote, the true Hillary haters. But the New York GOP can't settle for a candidate without broad enough appeal to at least help the party even in a potentially losing effort, says one prominent Republican strategist. "There's a real campaign to find a challenger who would generate interest not only for the U.S. Senate race, but also for every other Republican running that year."
By these standards, Brenner seems like a long shota very long shot. Maybe that explains the reaction to his candidacy back home. "The Sullivan County Republican Committee doesn't want anything to do with Bill Brenner," Gregory Goldstein, its chairman, tells the Voice. "He is not a viable candidate. He has no chance at all."
Other GOP players won't discount Brenner just yet. "He's committed to beating Hillary Clinton," says Donnelly, the Delaware County chair. "I don't know how realistic it is, but I believe he'll do what he has to do to try."
Call Brenner the true believer. "I'm the real deal," he says. "You'll see."
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