Former baseball statman Nate Silver has received heaps of press since applying his sabermetric techniques to politics. Now, at his popular FiveThirtyEight blog, he gives a
Other trackers are being more cautious, but Silver is pretty much all-in: while “our projection is subject to error,” he says, “even as we account for other cycles in which the polling numbers materially missed the national popular vote margin (such as in 1980), a McCain win appears highly unlikely. It is also possible, of course, that the polls are shy in Obama’s direction.”
If he’s right, or nearly right, his fortune’s made; if not — well, there’s always ESPN.