A few weeks ago, we had a post entitled “Polls Confirm That a Weiner Campaign Would Shake Up Mayoral Race.” This was some time before Weiner announced his entry into the race, as speculation swirled that the former Congressman with a social networking issue would even dare ask for a second chance in politics, especially by seeking the highest New York honor of them all: the mayoral0 throne. He had name recognition; he certainly had character and opinions; he was deemed the perfect splinter between Quinn and de Blasio. And yesterday, that speculation was met with statistics.
Last month, the Marist poll numbers for the Queens politician were low. With Quinn maintaining a 26 percent lead among registered Democrats, Weiner was left sharing second place with de Blasio at 15 percent. Yes, there was space for those rankings to shift–that was clear. But the frontrunner’s territory was marked up and Weiner’s position tied in a hypothetical second was solidified. Keep in mind he wasn’t even running yet.
Fast forward six weeks. By now, Weiner has released his emotional entry video, the New York Post and the New York Daily News have already played out the Weiner pun in front page headlines and we’re currently a week into his campaign. The results, as of the Marist poll yesterday: Weiner has garnered a 19 percent spot to Quinn’s now 24 percent spot; de Blasio has slipped back to 12 percent.
But what’s most important to look at here is where Weiner’s rise has come from. In April, the undecided vote was 22 percent; now, it’s 23 percent–the undecided factor in this race has yet to show its powers in the polls. The explanation for this shift could only come from one place: voters have shifted away from Quinn and de Blasio to push Weiner forward.
In other words, we’re watching a shakeup. It’s going to be a long way until November.
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