How the NYC Mayoral Race Betting Odds Shifted in Two Months


Just a couple of months ago, people were saying things like “I’m not a huge Weiner fan but I guess I’d rather vote for him than Quinn” and “The real question is, who faces Quinn in the runoff?” and “I like de Blasio but I don’t wanna waste my vote on a guy who has no chance.”

Things have changed. Here we are on primary day and the big mayoral race drama is: Will Bill de Blasio hit 40 percent?

His rise up the polls came swiftly–from long-shot idealist candidate to runaway favorite in about two months. Polls, of course, can be deceptive. Another way to quantify de Blasio’s surge? The online sports betting odds, where folks have some real skin in the game.

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For a snapshot of where we were in July, here’s the NYC Mayoral race odds from Ladbrokes, a British sports betting site that also takes bets on things like “US Presidential Election” and “Time Person of the Year” (Rand Paul, a dark horse at 50/1!):

Christine Quinn: 6/4 (you’d win $6 for every $4 you bet.)
Anthony Weiner: 3/1
William Thompson: 6/1
Bill de Blasio: 8/1
Joe Lhota: 10/1
John Lui: 16/1
John Catsimatidis: 16/1
George McDonald: 20/1
Adolfo Carrion: 20/1
Sal Albanese: 25/1
Eliot Spitzer: 33/1

And then Weiner had that thing, and de Blasio siphoned more attention, and Lui fell off the map. The Democratic primary became a three horse race. For about three weeks. Suddenly, there were polls showing de Blasio five, six, nine points ahead of the rest of the pack, flirting with then surpassing that 40 percent anti-run-off mark.

Here’s where the odds closed at last night:

Bill de Blasio: even
Christine Quinn: 3/1
William Thompson: 6/1
Joe Lhota: 8/1
Anthony Weiner: 20/1
John Catsimatidis: 20/1
George McDonald: 25/1
Adolfo Carrion: 25/1
Sal Albanese: 25/1
John Liu: 33/1