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This article is part of a series — At 250, Who Will America Be? — reporting on threats to American democracy as we approach the nation’s Semiquincentennial, on July 4, 2026.
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There are two kinds of presidential elections — those that make third party bids irrelevant, and those that don’t.
Four years ago, Donald Trump was president and Joe Biden was making the existential case for his candidacy. Covid was raging, the George Floyd protests were consuming many American cities, and the future of democracy, it seemed, hung in the balance. Biden’s case against Trump was that he could restore the soul of America by defeating him, and eventually build a bridge to a new generation of Democrats.
The pitch worked. Biden won the highest turnout election since women were allowed to vote, as enough terrified and angry Americans decided they wanted nothing more of Trump. Never had so many Americans voted for two presidential candidates. And not since the Obama years, perhaps, had third party bids meant so little.
Even the most well-wired of political junkies might not remember that Howie Hawkins was the Green Party presidential candidate in 2020, or that Jo Jorgensen was the Libertarian Party’s nominee. Together, they won less than 2% of the national vote, because the race was polarized between Biden and Trump — there was no room for anyone else.
Some polls show Kennedy winning more than 10% of the national vote.
This year might have the flavor of 2016 (when a combination of Green, Libertarian, and other third parties siphoned off more than 5% of the national vote), or even 2000, when dissatisfaction with Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush resulted in almost 3.5 million votes being cast for Green Ralph Nader and Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan. With a Trump-Biden rematch assured, barring health catastrophes or something wildly unforeseen in the GOP primary, two outcomes are virtually guaranteed: turnout will plummet from 2020 and third party candidates will get more votes.
Both Biden and Trump carry negative approval ratings and are, for a variety of reasons, deeply unpopular. Trump, of course, has been indicted four times, might end up in prison, and makes incendiary, inflammatory statements on an almost daily basis. The Republican base loves him, but there are plenty of moderates and swing voters who want a different candidate. Trump’s authoritarian impulses, somewhat checked in his four years as president, could translate into more destructive policy if he wins the presidency again.
Biden, like many incumbents across the world, has governed in an inflationary era that has soured large swaths of the electorate. Interest rates have skyrocketed, rents have surged, and cost-of-living expenses are still much higher than they were in 2019, before the pandemic.
And Biden will turn 82 shortly after Election Day. He is already the oldest president ever, and it’s unclear how aggressively he’ll be able to campaign. Even when he was younger, he was not overly charismatic, and failed in several presidential bids before breaking through in 2020. In 2012, Barack Obama, a once-in-a-generation political talent, was able to fight through economic headwinds to win a second term. If Biden is to win again, enough Americans will have to be disgusted with the idea of a second Trump term.
Stein may not run as well as she did in 2016 but should outperform Hawkins, as some leftists and liberals, displeased at Biden, register protest votes.
Enter the third party candidates: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein, and whomever the Libertarian Party candidate nominates. Some will run ahead of the others, but all, in some form, will impact this election far more than any third party contender from 2020.
The year 2016 might be most instructive. Trump, then, was a first-time nominee, and there were a significant number of moderates and country club conservatives who found him too alienating. While many Hillary Clinton–supporting liberals blamed Stein, the Green Party nominee, for siphoning votes from Clinton in key swing states, like Wisconsin, it was actually the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, who not only canceled Stein out but probably took even more votes from Trump.
Johnson, a socially liberal and fiscally conservative former New Mexico governor, captured a sizable share of dissident voters who would never have supported Clinton but couldn’t bring themselves to back Trump. Johnson won more than 3% of the popular vote, while Stein, reviled by Clinton backers, took just over 1%.
Stein is running again. Unlike West, the quasi-famous philosopher and political activist, she won’t struggle for ballot access, with the Greens having secured a place on the ballot in many states thanks to their prior decades of campaigning. West has received a good deal of media attention, but is unlikely to impact the race because he lacks the cash and campaign infrastructure to be a voting option in most states.
Stein may not run as well as she did in 2016 but should outperform Hawkins, as some leftists and liberals, displeased at Biden, register protest votes. The Libertarian nominee could vacuum up a few anti-Trump Republicans, and conservatives who are tired of seeing Donald Trump on their ballots.
Kennedy, of course, is the real wild card. Originally campaigning as a Democrat, he switched to an independent bid and seems to be a threat to draw away both Biden and Trump supporters. His anti-vax views, as well as his furious criticisms of Democratic elites, attract a certain kind of Trump-friendly voter, while his pedigree as a Kennedy and his career as an environmental lawyer could siphon Democrats.
Some polls show Kennedy winning more than 10% of the national vote, which would put him in league with Ross Perot, the last third party candidate to attract mass support in a presidential race. Perot captured almost 19% of the vote in 1992 and 8.4% in 1996, his populist campaigns finding purchase with Democrats and Republicans alike, while denying Bill Clinton a chance to ever win a majority of the popular vote.
Can Kennedy run as strongly as Perot? Kennedy, unaligned with a political party, must sweat ballot access. A pro-Kennedy super PAC has said it will spend up to $15 million to get the political scion onto the ballot in several critical swing states. Unlike Perot, Kennedy is not a billionaire, and he won’t be able to self-finance his presidential campaign.
As Election Day draws near, there will be the usual grumbling about wasted votes in the two-party system, as well as how selfish some Americans can be when they opt for Kennedy, Stein, or someone else. Biden, for one, will need a compelling rationale for his campaign beyond Trump’s noxiousness. It’s incumbent on the mainstream candidates to win over the public — that’s their job, and how democracies work. ❖
Ross Barkan is a writer from New York City.
Watch this space for more essays as we count down to America’s Semiquincentennial. What kind of celebration it will be is up to us.